NYC Autonomous Vehicle Delay Dashboard
The Delay
A timeline of NYC's autonomous vehicle regulatory failure
The Data
Waymo's safety record applied to NYC
NYC Traffic Fatalities (2019–2025)
* 2025: projected from partial year; 2026: projected from YTD
NYC Traffic Injuries (2019–2025)
Waymo Safety Reductions (Peer-Reviewed)
Applied to NYC (annual, based on 2024, 2.0% VMT share)
2.0% effective VMT share = NYC ride-hail VMT (~9.0%, Open Plans / Streetsblog 2023) × observed Waymo rideshare penetration in SF (~22%).
Source: Kusano et al. (2024) — 85% fewer any-injury-reported crashes over 7.1M autonomous miles
Source: Kusano et al. (2025) — 85% fewer suspected serious injury+ crashes, 79% fewer any-injury-reported crashes over 56.7M miles
Source: Swiss Re / Waymo (2024) — Waymo vehicles had zero bodily injury claims vs. human baseline
Ride-Hail Safety Comparison
Incident rates across ride-hail providers and national baseline
| Provider | Metric | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Waymo | Serious injuries / million miles | 0.02 |
| Uber | Accidents / million miles | 0.45 |
| Lyft | Accidents / million miles | 0.38 |
| National avg. | Fatalities / 100M VMT | 1.35 |
Methodologies differ across these sources. Waymo data uses police-reported incidents matched to location baselines; Uber/Lyft figures are self-reported. Direct comparison should be interpreted with caution.
Sources: Kusano et al., Traffic Injury Prevention (2025), 56.7M miles · Uber Safety Report (2021-2022) · Lyft Safety Report (2021-2022) · NHTSA FARS
Meanwhile, Elsewhere
Months from first Waymo testing to commercial ride-hail service
Methodology & Sources
Full transparency on data, assumptions, and limitations
How the counter works
The live counter estimates preventable deaths and injuries by interpolating NYC's cumulative traffic casualties since August 1, 2025 (when NYC DOT granted Waymo its first AV testing permit but blocked commercial deployment) and applying Waymo's peer-reviewed safety reduction factors to each category.
NYC crash data comes from the NYPD Motor Vehicle Collisions dataset on NYC Open Data, cross-referenced with Vision Zero reports. Deaths and injuries are interpolated linearly within each year to produce real-time estimates.
Estimate methodology
The headline counter sums four categories, each with its own reduction rate applied to 2.0% of vehicle miles traveled: deaths (85% reduction), pedestrian injuries (92%), cyclist injuries (85%), and motorist injuries (85%). The category-specific rates come from Kusano et al. (2024), which analyzed 7.1M rider-only miles and found 85% fewer any-injury crashes and 92% fewer pedestrian injury crashes. A subsequent 2025 study covering 56.7M miles confirmed 85% fewer suspected serious injury+ crashes (95% CI: 39–99%) and 79% fewer any-injury-reported crashes (95% CI: 71–85%).
The headline estimate uses an illustrative 2.0% effective VMT-share assumption. This is derived by multiplying NYC ride-hail's share of city-core vehicle miles traveled (about 9.0%, Fehr & Peers, 2019) by a benchmark Waymo share of the rideshare market (about 22%, based on San Francisco at end of 2024; data from YipitData).
Key assumptions & limitations
- The 85% reduction comes from Kusano et al.'s analysis of 7.1 million autonomous miles. Real-world deployment at scale could differ.
- Fatality reductions are extrapolated from injury crash data. Fatality-specific reductions may be higher or lower than the overall injury crash reduction.
- The 2.0% effective VMT share is derived from NYC ride-hail VMT (~9.0%, Open Plans / Streetsblog 2023) multiplied by observed Waymo rideshare penetration in San Francisco (~22% by end of 2024, YipitData).
- These figures represent potential lives saved, not certainties. AV technology continues to improve, and real-world results will depend on deployment specifics.
- NYC's road conditions, pedestrian density, and traffic patterns differ significantly from cities where Waymo data was collected (primarily Phoenix and San Francisco). NYC's high pedestrian volume could affect outcomes in either direction.
- NYC ride-hail VMT share may differ from the 2019 Fehr & Peers estimate. Post-pandemic ride-hail usage patterns have shifted in many cities.
Data sources
- NHTSA FARS Fatality Analysis Reporting System — national traffic fatality data
- NYC Open Data — Motor Vehicle Collisions NYPD motor vehicle collision and fatality data, updated daily
- NYC Vision Zero New York City traffic safety initiative and crash data
- Kusano et al. (2024) Peer-reviewed study: 85% fewer any-injury-reported crashes in 7.1M Waymo miles
- Swiss Re / Waymo Insurance Study (2024) Zero bodily injury claims for Waymo fleet vs. human baseline
- Fehr & Peers Ride-Hail VMT Study (2019) Ride-hail accounts for 1-13% of city-core VMT across major US cities
- Kusano et al. (2025) — 56.7M Miles Updated peer-reviewed study: 85% fewer suspected serious injury+ crashes over 56.7M Waymo miles
- YipitData / App Economy Insights — Waymo SF Market Share Waymo reached ~22% of the San Francisco rideshare market by end of 2024 (YipitData via a16z)
- NYC DOT AV Testing Permit Announcement Mayor Adams and DOT announce approval of first autonomous vehicle testing application